Who controls Congress today?
See the actual balance of power, understand what would be needed for control to change, and explore the evidence state by state.
Checking sources…Baseline dated Oct 26, 2026
Live source has not been verified yet. Showing a dated baseline.
01 · THE FACTS
Membership checked hourlyWho controls Congress now?
Current membership, caucus alignment and the threshold required to change control.
House seats today
RepublicanDemocraticIndependentVacant
Each dot represents a current seat or vacancy. Visual arrangement is illustrative; not a forecast.
02 · CONTROL MATHEMATICS
What would need to change?
A full-chamber absolute majority requires 218 seats. Current caucus totals include the independent alignments reported in October 2026.
Democratic-aligned caucus214 seats
Republican-aligned caucus219 seats
The Democratic-aligned caucus is 4 seats below an absolute majority. This is seat arithmetic, not an election forecast.
0 net transfers to D-aligned caucus214 D-aligned / 219 R-aligned
Republican-aligned majorityHypothetical mathematical scenario only. Not a forecast, prediction or voting recommendation. Vacancies remain unchanged.MULTI-SOURCE FORECAST AND POLLING DESK
Checking sources…Published models and polls
Independent sources remain separate. Publication dates reflect the source’s update, not our hourly collection time. District-level estimates are available in each state profile.
CONTROL CHANGE WATCH · SOURCE SCENARIOS
What could change on November 3?
Current membership is verified separately from the independent publisher projections below. House and Senate estimates may come from different models and are never combined into a single probability.
Source scenarios are not certified election results, and a Senate 50–50 split depends on vice-presidential tie-breaking. See each publisher's methodology.
House and Senate
Published model temporarily unavailable.
DDHQ forecast ↗All 435 House districts
District feed temporarily unavailable.
Publisher data and reuse terms ↗REALCLEARPOLLING · PUBLISHED POLLLatest generic congressional ballot shown by RCP
Public polling table not available from the automated check.
RealClearPolling original table ↗INDEPENDENT UNIVERSITY CROSS-CHECKPrinceton Election Consortium
University forecast feed unavailable.
Original Princeton analysis ↗Recent published polls
Individual survey results, not forecasts. Field dates, survey populations and original source links are retained.
Recent polling feed unavailable. No poll numbers are substituted.
Source verification
Additional cross-check sources: RealClearPolling · Cook Political Report · Silver Bulletin. Cook and Silver are reference links; RCP and Princeton have independent automated checks, with visible unavailable states.
Polling Forecast output: CC BY 4.0 with attribution. Poll rows can carry CC BY-SA 4.0 Wikipedia-derived figures; reuse must retain source and share-alike obligations. No paywalled content is copied.
STATE-BY-STATE · CONTROL CHANGE INTELLIGENCE
Source checks hourlyWhere could House delegation control change?
Compare today's actual state House delegations with one publisher's district-by-district 2026 calls. These are state delegations, not statewide vote projections or election results.
0/50States with complete district forecasts
—Delegation majority changes indicated by the model
—Districts with publisher D probability of 40–60% (when complete)
A delegation majority is more than half of a state's House seats. A change here means the publisher's model calls a different delegation majority from today's membership; it does not establish who will win. The 40–60% watch range is a transparent display filter, not a new statistical forecast. Published probabilities available for 0 of 0 district records.
Current membership is not verified, so delegation-control changes cannot be determined. Forecast-only information remains visible and dated.
Some state forecasts are incomplete. Missing projections are not treated as zero or as safe seats.
| State | House seats | Actual delegation | Published district calls | Majority comparison | Near-even districts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama AL | 7 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Alaska AK | 1 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Arizona AZ | 9 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Arkansas AR | 4 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| California CA | 52 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Colorado CO | 8 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Connecticut CT | 5 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Delaware DE | 1 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Florida FL | 28 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Georgia GA | 14 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Hawaii HI | 2 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Idaho ID | 2 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Illinois IL | 17 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Indiana IN | 9 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Iowa IA | 4 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Kansas KS | 4 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Kentucky KY | 6 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Louisiana LA | 6 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Maine ME | 2 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Maryland MD | 8 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Massachusetts MA | 9 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Michigan MI | 13 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Minnesota MN | 8 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Mississippi MS | 4 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Missouri MO | 8 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Montana MT | 2 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Nebraska NE | 3 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Nevada NV | 4 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| New Hampshire NH | 2 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| New Jersey NJ | 12 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| New Mexico NM | 3 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| New York NY | 26 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| North Carolina NC | 14 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| North Dakota ND | 1 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Ohio OH | 15 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Oklahoma OK | 5 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Oregon OR | 6 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Pennsylvania PA | 17 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Rhode Island RI | 2 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| South Carolina SC | 7 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| South Dakota SD | 1 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Tennessee TN | 9 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Texas TX | 38 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Utah UT | 4 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Vermont VT | 1 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Virginia VA | 11 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Washington WA | 10 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| West Virginia WV | 2 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Wisconsin WI | 8 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
| Wyoming WY | 1 | Not verified | Incomplete | Insufficient data | Probability coverage incomplete |
Publisher: Polling Forecast public district data (CC BY 4.0). Current membership: public congressional roster. Each publisher's original dates are shown. Independent models may disagree, and no state-level result has been certified.
04 · STATE-BY-STATE
50 statesExplore all 50 states
Current House and Senate delegations, seats being contested, and direct access to state-level election research.
Michigan
HOUSE SEATS ON BALLOT13All districts, Nov 3
2026 SENATE CONTESTYesSee published research
Current House delegation
State membership is not verified right now. No state totals are estimated.
Current Senate delegation
State Senate membership is unavailable from the current source.
Published 2026 House district forecasts
Independent model from Polling Forecast (CC BY 4.0). This is the publisher's dated projection, not an official result or a DNA WEB prediction. Every House district is assessed individually.
Full district projections are not currently available for this state; no values have been inferred.
2026 Senate race forecasts
No published Senate race in the available feed for this state.
Recent state polling
No recent survey record for this state in the connected feed. This does not mean no polls exist.
Evidence ledgerMembership: dated baseline onlyState polling: 0 original linked records in latest imported sampleProjections: 0 attributed House district records; original publisher date preservedSocial discussion: self-selected posts, not representative polling
05 · PUBLIC OPINION
Polling is not social media
Compare published surveys with public online discussion, clearly separated by evidence type.
Published national polls
These are national generic-ballot surveys, not state-level forecasts. Check the original pollster for fieldwork, sample and methodology.
No verified national generic-ballot polls are currently available in the connected feed. No survey numbers have been invented.
Each poll retains its original fieldwork date, sample, pollster and source link. No average or projected winner is calculated from them here.
Public social discussion · Michigan
Explore what people are posting. These examples are not a representative sample of voters and cannot establish support for a candidate or party.
Checking public sources…
No synthetic sentiment percentages, bot-adjusted claims or inferred voter residence. Provider access must be authorized separately in the ELP GPT server.
06 · DATA TRANSPARENCY
Hourly source monitoringEvidence ledger
A source check is not a new poll or a newly published forecast. DNA WEB separates the last verified data from the time its server checked for updates.
Current congressional membershipFallback as of 2026-10-26Original source ↗
Membership, published polls, forecasts and publisher availability are checked on an hourly cache. Published forecasts and polls do not necessarily change hourly. No automated extraction of unlicensed forecast values is claimed. Public posts are not representative of voters.